A turning point in the history of earth’s energy
30% of the world’s electricity comes from renewable energy, and China has made a huge contribution
The development of global energy is reaching a critical crossroads.
On May 8, according to the latest report from global energy think tank Ember: In 2023, thanks to the growth of solar and wind
power generation, renewable energy power generation will account for an unprecedented 30% of global power generation.
2023 may become a landmark turning point when carbon emissions in the power industry peak.
“The future of renewable energy is already here. Solar energy, in particular, is advancing faster than anyone imagined. Emissions
from the power sector are likely to peak in 2023 – a major turning point in energy history.” Ember Global Head of Insights Dave Jones said.
Yang Muyi, senior power policy analyst at Ember, said that currently, most wind and solar power generation is concentrated in
China and developed economies. It is particularly worth mentioning that China will make a huge contribution to global wind and
solar power generation growth in 2023. Its new solar power generation accounted for 51% of the global total, and its new wind
energy accounted for 60%. China’s solar and wind energy capacity and electricity generation growth will remain at high levels
in the coming years.
The report points out that this is an unprecedented opportunity for countries that choose to be at the forefront of a clean
energy future. Clean power expansion will not only help decarbonize the power sector first, but also provide the incremental
supply needed to electrify the entire economy, which will be a truly transformative force in the fight against climate change.
Nearly 40% of the world’s electricity comes from low-carbon energy sources
The “2024 Global Electricity Review” report released by Ember is based on multi-country data sets (including data from the
International Energy Agency, Eurostat, the United Nations and various national statistical departments), providing a
comprehensive overview of the global power system in 2023. The report covers 80 major countries around the world,
accounting for 92% of global electricity demand, and historical data for 215 countries.
According to the report, in 2023, thanks to the growth of solar and wind power, global renewable energy power generation
will account for more than 30% for the first time. Nearly 40% of the world’s electricity comes from low-carbon energy sources,
including nuclear energy. The CO2 intensity of global electricity generation has reached a record low, 12% below its peak in 2007.
Solar energy is the main source of electricity growth in 2023 and a highlight of renewable energy development. In 2023,
the global new solar power generation capacity will be more than twice that of coal. Solar energy maintained its position
as the fastest-growing source of electricity for the 19th year in a row and overtook wind as the largest new source of
electricity for the second year in a row. In 2024, solar power generation is expected to reach a new high.
The report noted that the added cleaning capacity in 2023 would have been enough to reduce fossil electricity production
by 1.1%. However, drought conditions in many parts of the world over the past year have pushed hydropower generation
to its lowest level in five years. The shortfall in hydropower has been made up for by increased coal generation, which has
led to a 1% increase in global power sector emissions. In 2023, 95% of coal power generation growth will occur in four
countries severely affected by drought: China, India, Vietnam and Mexico.
Yang Muyi said that as the world attaches increasing importance to the goal of carbon neutrality, many emerging economies
are also accelerating and trying to catch up. Brazil is a classic example. The country, historically reliant on hydropower,
has been very active in diversifying its power generation methods in recent years. Last year, wind and solar energy
accounted for 21% of Brazil’s electricity generation, compared with only 3.7% in 2015.
Africa also has huge untapped clean energy potential as it is home to a fifth of the global population and has huge solar
potential, but the region currently attracts only 3% of global energy investment.
From the perspective of energy demand, global electricity demand will rise to a record high in 2023, with an increase of
627TWh, equivalent to Canada’s entire demand. However, global growth in 2023 (2.2%) is below the average in recent
years, due to a marked decline in demand in OECD countries, especially the United States (-1.4%) and the European
Union (-3.4%). In contrast, demand in China grew faster (+6.9%).
More than half of the electricity demand growth in 2023 will come from five technologies: electric vehicles, heat pumps,
electrolysers, air conditioning and data centers. The spread of these technologies will accelerate electricity demand
growth, but because electrification is much more efficient than fossil fuels, overall energy demand will fall.
However, the report also pointed out that with the acceleration of electrification, the pressure brought by technologies
such as artificial intelligence is increasing, and the demand for refrigeration has further increased. It is expected that
demand will accelerate in the future, which raises the question of clean electricity. Can the growth rate meet the
growth in electricity demand?
An important factor in the growth of electricity demand is air conditioning, which will account for approximately 0.3%
of global electricity consumption in 2023. Since 2000, its annual growth rate has been steady at 4% (rising to 5% by 2022).
However, inefficiency remains a significant challenge because, despite a small cost gap, most air conditioners sold
globally are only half as efficient as state-of-the-art technology.
Data centers also play an important role in driving global demand, contributing as much to electricity demand growth in
2023 as air conditioning (+90 TWh, +0.3%). With average annual power demand growth in these centers reaching nearly
17% since 2019, implementing state-of-the-art cooling systems can improve data center energy efficiency by at least 20%.
Yang Muyi said that coping with growing energy demand is one of the biggest challenges facing the global energy transition.
If you take into account the additional demand that will come from decarbonizing industry through electrification, electricity
demand growth will be even higher. For clean electricity to meet growing electricity demand, there are two key levers:
accelerating the growth of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency across the value chain (especially in emerging
technology industries with high electricity demand).
Energy efficiency is particularly critical in meeting the growing demand for clean energy. At the 28th United Nations Climate
Change Conference in Dubai, global leaders pledged to double annual energy efficiency improvements by 2030. This
commitment is critical to building a clean electricity future as it will relieve pressure on the grid.
A new era of declining emissions from the power industry will begin
Ember predicts a slight decline in fossil fuel power generation in 2024, triggering larger declines in subsequent years.
Demand growth in 2024 is expected to be higher than in 2023 (+968 TWh), but growth in clean energy generation is
expected to be greater (+1300 TWh), contributing to a 2% decline in global fossil fuel generation (-333 TWh). Anticipated
growth in clean electricity has given people confidence that a new era of falling emissions from the power sector is
about to begin.
Over the past decade, the deployment of clean energy generation, led by solar and wind power, has slowed the growth
of fossil fuel power generation by nearly two-thirds. As a result, fossil fuel power generation in half the world’s economies
passed its peak at least five years ago. OECD countries are leading the way, with total electricity sector emissions
peaking in 2007 and falling by 28% since then.
In the next ten years, the energy transformation will enter a new stage. Currently, fossil fuel use in the global power sector
is bound to continue to decline, resulting in lower emissions from the sector. Over the next decade, increases in clean
electricity, led by solar and wind, are expected to outpace energy demand growth and effectively reduce fossil fuel use
and emissions.
This is critical to achieving international climate change goals. Multiple analyzes have found that the electricity sector
should be the first to decarbonise, with this target set to be achieved by 2035 in OECD countries and 2045 in the
rest of the world.
The power sector currently has the highest carbon emissions of any industry, producing more than a third of energy-related
CO2 emissions. Not only can clean electricity replace fossil fuels currently used in car and bus engines, boilers, furnaces
and other applications, it is also key to decarbonizing transport, heating and many industries. Accelerating the transition
to a clean electrified economy driven by wind, solar and other clean energy sources will simultaneously promote economic
growth, increase employment, improve air quality and enhance energy sovereignty, achieving multiple benefits.
And how quickly emissions fall will depend on how quickly clean energy is built. The world has reached consensus on the
ambitious blueprint needed to reduce emissions. At the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) last December,
world leaders reached a historic agreement to triple global renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. The goal will bring
the global share of renewable electricity to 60% by 2030, almost halving emissions from the power industry. Leaders also
agreed at COP28 to double annual energy efficiency by 2030, which is critical to realizing the full potential of electrification
and avoiding runaway growth in electricity demand.
While wind and solar power generation is growing rapidly, how can energy storage and grid technology keep up? When the
proportion of renewable energy power generation further increases, how to ensure the stability and reliability of power
generation? Yang Muyi said that integrating a large amount of renewable energy with fluctuating power generation into the
power system Efficient planning and grid connections are required, with a focus on power system flexibility. Flexibility
becomes critical for balancing the grid when weather-dependent generation, such as wind and solar, exceeds or falls
below power demand.
Maximizing power system flexibility involves implementing a range of strategies, including building energy storage facilities,
strengthening grid infrastructure, deepening electricity market reforms, and encouraging demand-side participation.
Cross-regional coordination is particularly important to ensure more efficient sharing of spare and residual capacity with
neighboring regions. This will reduce the need for excess local capacity. For example, India is implementing market coupling
mechanisms to ensure more efficient distribution of power generation to demand centers, promoting a stable grid and
optimal utilization of renewable energy through market mechanisms.
The report points out that while some smart grid and battery technologies are already very advanced and deployed to
maintain the stability of clean energy generation, further research into long-term storage technologies is still necessary
to enhance the effectiveness and efficiency of future clean energy systems.
China plays a pivotal role
The report analysis points out that to accelerate the development of renewable energy: ambitious high-level government
goals, incentive mechanisms, flexible plans and other key factors can promote the rapid growth of solar and wind
power generation.
The report focuses on analyzing the situation in China: China plays a pivotal role in promoting the global energy transition.
China is the global leader in wind and solar power generation, with the largest absolute generation and the highest annual
growth in more than a decade. It is increasing wind and solar power generation at breakneck speed, transforming the
world’s largest power system. In 2023 alone, China will contribute more than half of the world’s new wind and solar power
generation, accounting for 37% of global solar and wind power generation.
Growth in emissions from China’s power sector has slowed in recent years. Since 2015, growth in wind and solar energy
in China has played a crucial role in keeping emissions from the country’s power sector 20% lower than they would
otherwise be. However, despite China’s significant growth in clean energy capacity, clean energy will only cover 46%
of new electricity demand in 2023, with coal still covering 53%.
2024 will be a critical year for China to reach the peak of emissions from the power industry. Due to the speed and scale
of China’s clean energy construction, especially wind and solar energy, China may have already reached the peak of
power sector emissions in 2023 or will reach this milestone in 2024 or 2025.
Additionally, while China has made great strides in developing clean energy and electrifying its economy, challenges
remain as the carbon intensity of China’s electricity generation remains higher than the global average. This highlights
the need for continued efforts to expand clean energy.
Against the backdrop of global trends, China’s development trajectory in the power sector is shaping the world’s transition
to cleaner energy. Rapid growth in wind and solar energy has made China a key player in the global response to the climate crisis.
In 2023, China’s solar and wind power generation will account for 37% of the world’s power generation, and coal-fired
power generation will account for more than half of the world’s power generation. In 2023, China will account for more
than half of the world’s new wind and solar power generation. Without the growth in wind and solar power generation
since 2015, China’s power sector emissions would have increased by 21% in 2023.
Christina Figueres, former UNFCCC Executive Secretary, said: “The fossil fuel era has reached a necessary and inevitable
end, as the report’s findings make clear. This is a critical turning point: the last century Outdated technology that can no
longer compete with the exponential innovation and falling cost curve of renewable energy and storage will make all of
us and the planet we live on better for it.”